Six CWG Readers Predicted DC’s Winter Snowfall Perfectly

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Washington received 13.2 inches of snow last winter. Impressively, half a dozen Capital Weather Gang readers claimed just that in our annual winter snowfall contest.

Congratulations to these winners:

  • larry burchet
  • Matt Clark
  • Davin E.
  • Michael Shreve
  • Alan Simpson
  • ryan walker

This elite group of tipsters beat out around 900 other people who entered our contest and more than earned the bragging rights.

The 13.2 inches that fell at Reagan National Airport, the district’s official sighting site, was just half an inch from the most recent 30-year average (13.7 inches). This was the fifth winter of the past six with below average snowfall.

Washington’s ‘normal’ snowfall fell

We should also give honorable mention to 19 other participants who were within 0.1 inches of the forecast:

  • Predict 13.1 inches (0.1 inch too low): Guillermo Galdamez, Rachel Gordon, Justin Hudson, Robb Kookaby, Alexander Lange, Tabitha Lawler, Alex Lu, Rene Menjivar, Anthony Miller
  • Predict 13.3 inches (0.1 inch too much): Monisha Das, Jadie Dawson, Carol Fyfe, Jessica Gray, Louis Gruber, Brian Kane, Irwin Reyes, Alexander Schlegel, Katy Tecson, Ryan Westrom

Overall, CWG readers were pretty good at predicting how much snow would fall; the average prediction among the nearly 900 attendees was 12.2 inches – just an inch shorter. About 100 participants were within an inch of hitting the target.

It was a rare year in which many people were able to predict the amount of snow that would fall.

As we noted on Monday, CWG’s official winter outlook was in the stadium with its snowfall projection, calling for 8 to 12 inches.

Our DC winter outlook was accurate on snow, imperfect on temperatures

Of the 24 CWG forecasters and editors who made snowfall estimates, Mike Branom — who, interestingly, isn’t a meteorologist and lives in Los Angeles — had the best forecast, accurately predicting 13.2 inches.

Before winter, we also aggregated snowfall forecasts from TV weather crews and private sector meteorologists, and the consensus was generally between about 6 and 12 inches – a bit low, but close.

This year has been about as “average” for snowfall in the DC area as it gets. We generally had more snow than the milder places to the south and less than the colder regions to the north. Our snowfall managed to pass Philadelphia, which normally sees more snowfall, but we didn’t reach Salisbury, MD and Wallops Island, VA, which usually see less.

Many Eastern cities moved closer to their average amounts, although several locations in the Northeastern Interior, such as Syracuse and Albany, NY, and Erie, Pennsylvania, saw significantly less than normal.

Below are the winners of previous Capital Weather Gang snow forecast contests:

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2020-2021

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2019-2020

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2018-2019

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2017-2018

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2016-2017

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2015-2016

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2014-2015

Capital Weather Gang Snow Forecast Contest Winners, 2013-2014

Capital Weather Gang Snowfall Forecasting Contest Winners, 2012-2013

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